My mind tells me Virginia, but my gut say to roll with UNC Wilmington. The Seahawks love to play fast, spread your defense out, and press you full-court. Their energy is pretty insane. Coach Kevin Keatts is also one of those mid-major coaches that finds new ways to think outside the box. On offense, UNC Wilmington is a spread pick-and-roll team wit shooters & ball-handlers slotted 1-through-4, with a hard rolling & springy big at the five. Their backcourt is led by the shifty Denzel Ingram & versatile scoring C.J Bryce. You also can not forget about senior guard Chris Flemmings, who can light you up too. On offense, UNC Wilmington likes to run many empty-side pick-and-rolls & middle pick-and-rolls where they will slot one shooter in the weak-side corner in order to force lone help on the roll. The Seahawks hunt for threes in transition & on secondary breaks, especially threes from the corners. After an opponent make, they inbound the ball quickly to test a defense’s discipline on getting back and set. What is very intriguing about their offense is how Keatts will have shooters in the slot stand farther off the line, similar to how Mike D’antoni has Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson space in Houston’s offense. This makes it harder for a defense to help on a drive, then recover for the closeout. They also run some nifty pick-and-roll actions such as roll-and-replace to get helpside defense out of place. They have an occasional zipper series for C.J Bryce, who can hit those pull-up (scheme-changing) threes out of pick-and-roll, thus forcing your bigs to play up to touch. The offense does well to keep the ball moving & flowing from ball-screen to ball-screen until the defense cedes a spot-up opportunity from three or an opening for the ball-handler to attack downhill & put pressure on the rim. Keatts is very crafty in how he regularly sends a weak-side wing to crash the offensive glass, as the Seahawks do rank 67th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.
As for defense, the Seahawks work their butts off. Every player sinks into a stance & fight to beat ball-handlers to their spots. The opt to create turnovers as they want to get as much offense generated off the hard work from their defensive integrity. They are one of the better teams in the nation at closing-out & running shooters off the line. They load to the ball as they want to force the skip pass & recover on said pass. However, they are more prone to fouls due to an aggressive approach. They tend to switch off-ball actions 2-through-5, but prefer for their five-man to hedge out on pick-and-roll opposed to switching the screen. Devontae Cacok is their full-time rim-protector who is springy & alert enough to rotate over from the weak-side to make saving plays at the rim.
For Virginia, they run the ole Dick Bennett Mover-Blocker offense. Tony Bennett, Dick’s son, has done very well carrying over his father’s preferred style of play to Virginia’s basketball program. In this offense, you have two of what are called the “Movers”, which are the cutters. Then you will have two of the “Blockers”, which are the screeners. Of course, you have your ball-handler up top who then becomes a “Mover” after making a pass. You regularly see pindowns & flares in this offense, with bits of pick-and-roll play. Bennett has struggled in games this year to find some firepower in the offense other than senior guard London Perrantes, as he does not have the benefit of a true post-oriented big man. However, Bennett has started to find more shooting prowess on the floor by playing freshman guards Kyle Guy & Ty Jerome next to Perrantes. The former being a complete sniper off the catch, and famously known for his man-bun hairdo. Virginia is a good three-point shooting team as they rank 19th in the nation in three-point percentage. The “Movers” are very good at reading their trailing defender when coming off screens. They can make defenders pay for overplaying, getting caught, falling asleep, or trying to split the gap on their screens.
As for defense, Virginia runs the Pack-Line. The Pack-Line defense has certain principles that differ from today’s common methodologies, as they want to force ball-handlers middle, rather than baseline. The man defending the ball comes out to pressure the ball-handler, while the other perimeter defenders stay within the arc already primed in help position. The goal here is to force the ball-handler into the “Pack”, thus forcing a kick-out to where they will recover & force the same result. Virginia has their bigs hedge out on every screen as they want to corral & redirect the ball-handler. You may see them switch the pick-and-roll at times, but it would be a very rare occasion to see them Ice the ball-screen. They also have principles such as to closeout with choppy steps & to have their hands up high. The Cavaliers rank 1st in the nation in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom.
Prediction: In conclusion, this will be quite the game to watch. A Spread pick-and-roll attack going against the Pack-Line defense. Virginia will have to be very stout, as they usually are, on their helping-the-helper rotation as Keatts may get crafty by having his screeners slip or re-screen against Virginia’s bigs hedging. While some view this as an unfavorable draw for UNC Wilmington, who is gaining more press as a sleeper due to last year’s performance against Duke, I believe the Seahawks match-up very well with the Cavaliers & ultimately have the talent to send London Perrantes & company home in the Round of 64. Again, my mind says Virginia, but my gut says to go with the Seahawks. 62-52, UNC-Wilmington pulls the upset.
NBAward 