Making it to the second week of the NCAA tournament is an accomplishment for most, however, it’s only a step closer to the ultimate goal for both Kentucky and Duke; a National Championship. Now, while there is never an easy road to the Final Four, both Duke and Kentucky can expect to have to fight vigorously to continue on their path. While many may think they will be safe this week and weekend, there are reasons to think otherwise. Lets take a look at how both Duke and Kentucky can be sent home packing in the Sweet 16. Thus, ending their mission on becoming this year’s National Champion.
Duke vs Utah:
How can the Utes pull it off: Utah is lead into this match up with the Blue Devils by their stars in point guard Delon Wright and Center Jakob Poeltl. They are also led by the magnificence of head coach Larry Krystkowiak. Coach Krystowiak has done a marvelous job in turning Utah back into a contender within the Pac-12 Conference. The Utes love to spread the floor at times, and hit teams with an aggressive pick-and-roll attack. This attack is such a tough cover due to their personnel. Star point guard Delon Wright, is one of the best primary ball-handlers in the nation at exploiting weak side help. Whenever driving in the lane, Wright always seems to manage to make the right read. Wether that read be to finish at the rim, hit his roll man (if coming off of a pick set up top), or hitting his team mate on the weak side with a skip pass. Delon Wright is easily one of the best–if not the best–point guards in the nation at delivering the skip pass to the weak side corner. What makes the Utes pick-and-roll attack even more threatening to opposing defenses is the presence of the roll man. That roll man, is usually either seven-foot Jakob Poeltl or the other seven-footer in Dallin Bachynski. Both Poeltl and Bachynski are mobile bigs who contribute greatly to Utah’s tendency to run a lot of high screen and roll. With these two staggering seven-footer rolling to the rim, in addition to prolific floor general in Delon Wright driving down the lane, opposing big men are in “No Man’s Land” when trying to make proper timing in disengaging their man and stopping the ball. due to this, it usually–almost always–requires a backside tag on the roll man. when that tag is made, the perimeter player making it, must be effective in buying time, otherwise Delon Wright will sniff out the over-help and find his teammate open for a shot. This is where it becomes a problem for Duke. Most certainly, Jahlil Okafor. Jahlil Okafor has struggled a lot this season when it comes to defending the pick-and-roll, especially high pick-and-roll. Duke does not possess that much elite quickness on defense in their back court, as well as size. In result, Duke’s guards (Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones) are not that effective at going over screens and recovering to their man. Given that they can go under the screen–especially on Delon Wright screens–it will be much difficult to do given the stature of the screen setters Utah has in Poeltl and Bachynski. Also given Okafor’s struggles in defending the pick-and-roll, Utah has potential to wreak havoc for the Blue Devils with ball-screen continuity and aggressive high pick-and-roll. While Okafor has great verticality when defending shots at the rim, his biggest problem is actually getting into proper position or the right spot in order to be able to contest those shots. With this, Okafor needs to be able to find comfortable midle ground when sagging off of these high pick-and-rolls in order to help him stop penetration long enough for his man to recover to the ball-handler and then follow by Okafor being able to recover to his man. If not, many things can happen. either Okafor can fail to stop penetration completely and allow a layup at the rim, or stop penetration and allow an easy pass to the roll man in time to beat Duke’s coverage. With the latter in mind, this will likely result in a back side tag by one of Duke’s perimeter players. While Justise Winslow is effective at buying time as the lone help, not many of Duke’s other perimeter players possess the ability to do so. With this mind, Duke may be victims to giving up many threes on the back side. Delon Wright should be able to sniff out the help and find the open man. Thus, making it a long day for the Blue Devils. And that’s only on the offensive end for Utah. As for defense, expect Utah to stand their ground pretty well. The Utes rank ninth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Utah is an effective defensive team in the half court. While not effectively creating extra opportunities via turnovers, they do a good job at limiting possessions for the opposition. The Utes rebound very well and take care of the ball. The Utes size and length play a factor in their half court defense. Given their staggering size, Poeltl and Bachynski are very effective at times at contesting shots at the rim. Their size and length down low plays a huge factor in how the Utes alter shots. Many people were surprised with how well Duke was able to overcome the defensive presence of Steve Fisher and his San Diego State team. Fisher’s team loved to utilize their length in playing passing lanes and going with big to big doubles on effective low post big men. Problem is, Duke was able to effectively go 4-out with Okafor which resulted in the Aztecs going smaller and Okafor being able to punish them down low due to the inability to double as easy for San Diego State. It also did not help that the Aztecs do not shoot the ball well, even when going 5-out. Their 5-out style was not effective enough to run Okafor off the floor. However, we must note that Okafor struggled tremendously to cover the high pick-and-pops the Aztecs were running. As for Utah, the Utes should not have to fear when Duke goes 4-out simply because they have the size to defend Okafor down low without the need of a double. In all, If the Utes can hold their ground on defense, and put Duke in number disadvantages on the offensive end, then the Utes can end the Blue Devil’s season sooner than many would expect.
Kentucky vs West Virginia:
How West Virginia can pull it off: You would be called a fool if you were to go up to your friends and say that Bob Huggins team will be moving on to the Elite Eight for the weekend. Not many give West Virginia a chance. And who can blame them? The Mountaineers are set to take on the powerhouse in college basketball known as the Kentucky Wildcats. The 36-0 wildcats who have managed to come out on top of ever match this season. Even when it seemed when odds were not in their favor, Kentucky was still able to find a way to come out on top. However, during the stretch of this season, Kentucky has most certainly showed areas in which they are vulnerable. Problem is, teams have not been able to effectively capitalize on those weaknesses for a full 40 minutes. If a given team can do that, they can knock off the Wildcats pursuit for perfection. That’s where West Virginia comes in. Bob Huggin’s team is arguable–and maybe easily–the best team in the nation at creating extra opportunities. West Virginia’s dedication the the weight room in the weight season has contributed greatly in their advantage given that the Mountaineers rank seventh in the nation in Offensive Rebounding percentage. The Mountaineer’s also rank first in the nation in steal per game. No one in the nation has pressed better than the Mountaineers this season. The Mountaineers thrive off of their full court press which effectively helps them turn defense into offense. The Mountaineers are also one of those rare teams that will press the opposition on a missed shot. Given this, it is because Huggin’s does not like having to play within a half court game and relying on his half court offense. Simply because Huggins recruits athletes for his press and not particularly gifted shooters. When talking about the press against Kentucky, it is clear to see where the Wildcats will struggle. The Harrison twins have not proven to be the most solid ball-handlers as well as reliable decision-makers. At times, they end up making an errant decision that leaves many shaking their head. As for Tyler Ullis, his size can be at a great disadvantage when it comes to the “Run and Jump” and “Cut and Double” attempts by West Virginia in their full court press. Ulis will have to find a way to either dribble or pass through the press, which is much harder than it sounds. The Mountaineers will aim to make him pass over the top of the defense in efforts to gamble one, or maybe even two, passes away to gain a steal and number advantages in transition. It is not hard to see where the Mountaineers will cause mayhem for the Wildcat’s back court tandems. As for the front court, expect Devin Williams to take a notes from Kentucky’s recent game against Cincinnati and where Octavius Ellis and Coreontae DeBerry basically “Mud wrestled” with Kentucky’s big men down low and on the boards. If Williams can maintain his ground there, then he will be an unsung hero if West Virginia manages to pull it off. As for defending in the half court, expect the Mountaineers to double the post whenever an entry pass is made. While Kentucky used to be more dribble-drive oriented, they look to pound the ball in down low ever since head coach John Calipari started collecting seven-footers like they were Pokemon cards. West Virginia will have to effectively double Kentucky down low. as seen against Arkansas in the SEC championship game, Kentucky can and will struggle against effective post doubles. Reason being is likely due to Kentucky not being a consistently good shooting team from deep. The Wildcats have arguably two effective outside shooters in Aaron Harrison and Devin Booker. Kentucky likes to go 3-out more often which will help West Virginia since they can go with big to big doubles instead of sending help or digging down from the perimeter.Reason Kentucky does not go 4-out much has been due to the presence and depth they have in the front court, as well as not having consistency from Trey Lyles from deep (their stretch big as they would like to call). You can argue Karl-Anthony Town’s ability to space the floor, but it must be noted that Towns is only two for eight from three this season. West Virginia should look to go with big to big doubles to help create turnovers. If they want to dig down from the wing, then they should not dig down off of Booker or Aaron. If they do, they must recover and run them off of the line. Especially Booker who fails to create separation on drives and jacks up awkward looking jump shots at times. West Virginia will have to be able to create extra opportunities, limit extra opportunities to Kentucky, and make them go dry from deep. As for offense, the Mountaineers can cause damage too. While not being well heralded for their half court offense, West Virginia likes to mix it up. Usually the Mountaineers start in their Cut-and-Fill Motion. The Mountaineers also can get into their Spread Ball-Screen or Flex series. While playing Kentucky, expect to see much action from Huggin’s team out of their Spread Ball-Screen series. A problem Kentucky has had on defense this season is defending against spread and empty side pick-and-rolls as well as pick-and-pops. This showed a lot against Georgia when Mark Fox’s team was able to spread the Wildcats out and force their bigs to cover ground. While Georgia did not shoot the ball well from deep, they were able to create many great and sometimes open looks from three via their spread pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop attacks. Nemanja Djurisic’s ability to pop out on an empty side pick-and-roll really left Towns and Cauley-Stein wondering what to do. Georgia caused much damaged for Kentucky with second-side ball-screening action as well. It was not only Georgia’s personnel that made it hard for Kentucky to cover ground, it was their ability to keep their bigs away from the paint and force the to cover ground. Even when Kentucky would switch the ball-screen, Georgia utilized the size advantage and immediately looked for a post up down low with their big being defended by a smaller defender. If West Virginia can take note of Georgia’s game-plan against Kentucky and implement it effectively into their half court offense, especially spread ball-screen series, then they can expect similar results as Georgia. Problem is, Georgia was not able to consistently hit shots from the outside which hurt them in the long run. What makes it worse is that perimeter shooting is one of West Virginia’s biggest weaknesses this season. Reason being due to the aforementioned recruiting approach of Bob Huggins. Overall, for West Virginia to be able to pull on of the most monumental–well, biggest–upsets of the season, then they will have to clear the checklist. That checklist requires to create extra opportunities via turnovers and offensive rebounds as well as limit Kentucky’s possessions. The Mountaineers can most certainly do that. However, West Virginia needs to be able to spread the Wildcats out and be able to hit their shots from the outside long enough to hold Calipari’s team down. The latter proposes a huge “If” to Huggin’s team. If West Virginia can effectively cover every thing mentioned before, then they will knock off Kentucky and ruin the Wildcat’s pursuit to perfection.
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