This year’s NBA Playoffs have left us with many unforgettable moments: buzzer beaters, comebacks, collapses, constant flagrant fouls (That would be you, Dwight Howard), grueling game sevens, and James Harden at his best, and at his worst. In the midst of this, post-ups have made a revival (in the form of playmaking), the final four has consisted of four of the league’s most three-point happy teams, Thabo Sefolosha was sidelined over under-discussed reasons, and the end of the Thibodeau era in Chicago. Now we are left with two: A team led by a king who is at his zenith, and the Golden Boys out of the Bay Area. The Cavaliers have ridden on the back of Lebron James to carry them to this point through his magic in isolation play, while the Warriors continue to grind out by their tenacious defense and three-point happy identity.
While the Cavaliers are a team who are dependent upon the best player in basketball, the Golden State Warriors have made it here with their plethora of lengthy wings, a ruthless rim-protector, and their anomalic back court that shoot-and make-threes like they are the unfettered path to finding points. The Warriors have succeeded in counterintuitive ways. They have played to their style and forced their opponents to beat them at their game. They decimated the Pelicans–adding the finishing touch to Monty Williams’ obituary, out-grinded the grind house, and knocked the Rockets out of Morey ball and in to the land of settling for inordinate mid-range jumpers. The Warriors are like the Scooby Doo gang; meticulous on finding clues that lead to the answer in solving each monster that stands in their path. And while this is happening, Phil Jackson is meddling at these dumb kids and their dumb dog. The only thing that stands in there way now from the promise land is the king; who is back to rightfully claim his thrown in his home land, as well as bring in a championship trophy with it.
As for Cleveland, the Cavaliers have managed to overcome injuries to the majestical Kyrie Irving and invaluable Kevin Love. However, David Blatt has re-programmed the GPS and Cleveland has found their destination. Wether it has been by running actions to isolate Lebron James and have him isolate the weak-side help, summon their commanding duo of rebounding-frenzy monsters, or becoming more switch-happy, David Blatt has found a way to keep it going. The Cavaliers have overcome the reassembling Boston Celtics, the nettlesome Chicago Bulls–while exchanging buzzer beaters in games 3 and 4, and the arcane Atlanta Hawks. Cleveland has made the accomplishments despite the David Blatt (supposed) incompetent controversies that surfaced during the regular season, the Kevin Love alienations, and drastic injuries. But now, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Lebron James are only four more wins from claiming the NBA championship. For Lebron, a championship in his hometown is in his grasp once again since the year of 2007. This time, the league MVP, Stephen Curry, stands in his way.
The Warriors come in the series as favorites, as that may not come off as a surprise to many. Golden State has the adequate amount of wings who are capable of sharing the strenuous load in guarding Lebron James. We can see anyone such Andre Iguodala, Harris Barnes, Klay Thompson (if cleared from his concussion), and heck, maybe Shaun Livingston take their share on the king. The Warriors will not have to resort to exaggerating their help on Lebron as much as Atlanta did in the previous series due to their plethora of respectable Lebron defenders. With that, expect Andrew Bogut to stick to his two-nine style in protecting the paint. Bogut will gladly ignore Tristan Thompson or Timofey Mozgov on the baseline as he is confident that one of his teammates will be there to cover up as he helps. Lebron will not only have to worry about beating the frontline defender, but managing to eviscerate the back line defender too. With Bogut protecting the paint, it is hard to see the Warriors over helping which leads to Lebron exposing the weak-side help via skip passes leading to a teammate three-pointer or that teammate attacking a long closeout.
The Warriors managed to do the aforementioned strategy to the Rockets; Bogut would always be in great help position below the basket when Houston went with unconventional two-big lineups. This would induce Harden in to settling for an inefficient mid-range jumper as Harden would not be able to attack the rim at full force out of isolation. Lob passes were absent at times to due to Draymond ignoring the second big on the baseline to drop down on Bogut’s man. Bogut would Help-the-Helper while Draymond would Fill-and-Sink. In pick-and-rolls, Bogut would do his occasional zoning up which allowed him to wall off Harden’s penetration–which helped Harden’s defender recover to him–and recover back to the roll man–after a tag was made by a help defender that effectively helped buy time. The Rockets managed to find ways to negate this strategy for a short-lived amount of time via “Snug” pick-and-rolls. With the way Golden State was able to put a vice-grip on the paint, they essentially baited Harden in to their mouse trap by making him settle for shots that are forbidden in Darryl Morey’s realm. The Rockets, during the regular season, averaged 13 long paint shots per game, per NBA Synergy Stats. That number is up to 23 per game in the playoffs–a mark that would have led the league by far. And while there where moments such as in game 2 where Harden managed to steal the cheese without being killed by the trap, it surely was not enough to overcome the Warriors. Harden would nail a tough mid-range shot after another, only to see Golden State exchange that with a three on the other end. The imbalance was too much for Houston to overcome in the end.
The Warriors will likely take the same approach to guarding Lebron James’ pick-and-rolls similar to Atlanta by going under, given that a switch with a survivable mismatch is not in place. The problem that runs here is giving Lebron the space to build up a head of steam to attack the rim at full force. Atlanta was two-feet in with this gamble–as if they had another preferable option–given how Lebron has struggled from three during the postseason. Lebron has only shot 12-of-68 from three in the postseason (17.6%). However, on 35 or 45 (depending if Lebron is at the 3 or 4) pick-and-rolls, with Lebron as the ball-handler and either Tristan Thompson or Timofey Mozgov as the roller, expect Golden State to stick to their conservative Ice ball-screen coverage with Bogut dropping back to wall off Lebron’s penetration. This helps due to the inability of Thompson and Mozgov to pose as pick-and-pop threats. On 31 or 41 pick-and-rolls, Golden State may go anywhere from switching–which runs the risk of a smaller Stephen Curry on Lebron James–to a hedge and go under. It will be interesting to see how the Warriors defend Lebron James without providing more help that could lead to pivotal defensive breakdowns.
I expect the Warriors to stick to traditional match-ups in their starting lineup. The possibility of cross-matches are there as Cleveland does not play at a quicker pace which does not increase the chances of cross-switches. Golden State will likely be willing to give Harrison Barnes–an undervalued player for Golden State during these playoffs–a run on the king. If not, expect Iguodala to take on the challenge. However, the main goal is containing Lebron James in the process of not yielding quality three-point looks to his teammates. The Warriors have the personnel that is up to conquering that challenge on defense.
As for the offense, Golden State will have to be ingenious, especially when Cleveland goes small and possesses the ability to switch one through five. Draymond has to be able to punish smaller defenders down low on switches when the Cavaliers do not opt to send help. Green had occasional success in doing this against Houston in the Western Conference Finals when he bullied Jason Terry or Pablo Prigoriono on the low block for buckets. The Warriors will likely take advantage of Draymond’s superb playmaking skills from the post as they will use his post-ups on smaller defenders as decoys to run their favored split-cuts or other action to generate kick-out looks for three from the post. The Warriors are prone to do this more often for Andrew Bogut given the Aussie’s exceptional ball-handling and passing skills for a big. The Warriors will have to continuously look for ways to punish Cleveland for their strategic switching. That also applies for Cleveland on offense too. The Warriors may run more guard to guard screens to induce Cleveland in switching the smaller guard on to Klay Thompson. Then they will allow Klay to attack the smaller defender one on one. The Warriors will look to go with their 14 pick-and-pop with Curry and Green. However, the Cavaliers will likely be able to neutralize the popping threat of Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes on ball-screens by switching them. It will be a critical move by the Warriors in how the go by making Cleveland pay with those mismatches. The Warriors’ crux in this series will be how they defend the best player in basketball without mere help exaggerations as well as relentlessly punish the Cavaliers on the other end with their flow.
For Cleveland, it goes by how David Blatt continues to generate ways to keep the ball in the hands of the best game-changer in the game of basketball today. In the playoffs, David Blatt has ran Hawk, UCLA, Slice, Cross, Rip, and pick-and-roll slips to isolate Lebron James. These actions have served as a way of nearly maximizing the offensive potential of this Cleveland Cavaliers’ offense during the postseason (post Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving’s injury). Lebron managed to overpower Atlanta’s smaller defenders such as the hobbled DeMarre Carrol and Kent Bazemore which led to Atlanta being forced to over help on Lebron’s drives or post-ups. Lebron consistently exploited the weak-side help which led to weak-side (some strong-side) spot-up threes for teammates JR Smith, Iman Shumpert, Matthew Dellavedova, and James Jones. The Hawks tried going with Paul Millsap and, at times, Al Horford on Lebron to try and limit how much help they had to send. The problem was that they could only resort to Millsap on Lebron when Cleveland went small and Atlanta had two-bigs in. Reason being, if Cleveland had both Thompson and Mozgov in, Atlanta could not survive with a smaller wing defender trying to box out one of the ruthless rebounding machines. Either way, Lebron still managed to beat both off the dribble to the basket. Millsap tried picking up too far out and Horford played it safer by giving up space. In the end, both did not produce a positive trade-off that benefited Atlanta over the course of a game.
Against Golden State, Cleveland will likely stick to the same strategy, even with a Kyrie Irving return in the making. The Cavaliers will continue to ride Lebron James’ matchup isolations and spread pick-and-rolls for the most part. The ultimate goal will be to force the Warriors to gamble with opportunity costs: over help and run the risk of yielding open threes to the king’s teammates or let the match-ups battle it out. Now of course there is a middle ground: Golden State is one of the league’s best teams when it comes to defensive rotations. If there is a Warrior who finds himself helping off his man to help on a ball-handler’s drive, he will have the trust in his teammate to drop down on his man. Each man rotates to throw off the possibility of yielding an open shot. The Cavaliers will look to make the Warriors scramble, and unlike many, the Warriors may be comfortable in doing that. Rotational breakdowns are there, the crux is if the Cavaliers find and expose them.
Cleveland may not resort to their two-big, offensive rebound clashing lineup as much in this series. Golden State will likely flourish in ways to collapse the Cavalier’s spacing on offense by ignoring one of the two bigs so they can smother Lebron or Irving driving to the basket in pick-and-roll. Golden State has the personnel to nearly hand-for-hand match the Cavalier’s rebounding monsters on the glass. If the Warriors can do that, then they will be able to run that lineup right off of the floor. In many cases, the Cavaliers benefit from going small. The small lineup will provide them the flexibility to switch one through four (one through five with Thompson at the five). It also provides more spacing on offense when slotting Lebron at the power forward (point forward) position. Lebron can look to run spread pick-and-roll with Tristan Thompson which would drag Bogut out of the paint. While Bogut is more than likely to zone up on the ball-screen, the threat of a diving Tristan Thompson may put Bogut in no man’s land if the Warriors manage to have a rotational breakdown. However, that is a big IF present. Lebron, and Irving, will have to do an exceptionally well job at either manipulating the provided space that Bogut will cede them or draw help from the wings which can lead to kick-out opportunities. If not, Cleveland will have to rely on Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov to generate extra opportunities for them by way of offensive rebounds. Cleveland could go with a James Jones-Tristan Thompson front court pairing. Jones adds a popping threat that could prompt a switch, but that extends the risk on the other end of Golden State giving Jones the Ryan Anderson treatment in defending ceaseless pick-and-roll. It is likely that Cleveland seeks out more post-up isolations for Lebron in their smaller lineups to get Lebron overpowering a smaller defender on the block in efforts to force another Warrior to help down from the perimeter. Cleveland will have to manage to win the one on one battles, that, or either exploit Warrior rotations.
A dilemma lies upon the defensive end for Cleveland too. Do they cross-match an adept defender on Stephen Curry such as Iman Shumpert or take the Houston Rockets’ approach and allow their point guard to follow the insane, springy-loose anomaly off the ball. The Rockets paid for this as Jason Terry and Pablo Prigoriono would have their occasional sleep sessions off the ball which led to some Stephen Curry-quality looks from three. One second Jet or Prigs seem to be capable of the job, then all of the sudden they fall asleep, foolishly stay ball-side, or get caught on the screen which leads to Stephen Curry turning into scorching hot lava from deep. It is hard to imagine a hobbled Kyrie Irving keeping up with Stephen Curry off the ball. And while Matthew Dellavedova plays hard, the approach seems insurmountable for him. Cleveland can not go the Houston Rocketian no point-guard lineups as Cleveland does not have quality–well, playable–wing depth similar to the Rockets. Cleveland will likely run cross-matches to put Iman on Curry. Iman was more than adequate when it came to face guarding Kyle Korver in the Eastern Conference Finals. Iman’s ability in guarding a gravity threat such as Korver to a first-class level bodes a positive for Cleveland heading into this series. However, with that cross-match, Cleveland is left to figure out who they place their smaller point guard on. It does not make much sense to place him on the bigger Klay Thompson, who will also manage to abuse them by ways of off-ball movement or through his competent post-up game. Harrison Barnes is an option, but we have seen what he is capable of doing to smaller defenders on the low block (See: Ty Lawson and Tony Parker, 2013 Playoffs). Draymond Green does not make much sense either as he will be able to carry out the same effect as the other two. It is a tough question that Cleveland will be faced with, stick to traditional match-ups and risk Curry abusing his match-up? Or cross-match and figure out where you can hide your smaller defender? A circumstance that seems to be a lose-lose in both situations for Cleveland. The Cavaliers will have to surrender something to the Warriors. The question is: What is Cleveland willing to allow? This is a much easier question to answer when Golden State goes to their bench and brings in Leandro Barbosa, Shaun Livingston, or Andre Iguodala. But, this still does not account for the possibility of cross-switches in transition if Golden State manages to get on delayed breaks–their favored style of play. Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov were big enough rebounding threats against Atlanta that they forced the wings to help down on them when it came to boxing out, thus negating run-outs for Atlanta. However, Golden State has the personnel that is more suited to constraint Cleveland’s rebounding monsters off of the glass without requiring any additional help from the wings, time to time. The possibility of negating the Warriors from creating number advantages in transition will be present, but will come at a much bigger expense; Cleveland would be forced to play more of their two-big lineup in having to do so.
Overall, the Cavaliers have the best player in basketball today, but they will need more than that to win this series. Lebron will have a game–or two–where it will not matter what the Warriors throw at him, who he is being guarded by, or who is on the court with him. Lebron will be Lebron.
However, this Golden State team is too good. They have the talent to match, and overcome what the king will throw at them over the course of a best-of-seven series. In the end, the Warriors have the upper hand and flexibility to counter what Cleveland throws at them.
Warriors in 6.
NBAward 