Notre Dame vs Princeton:
This is one game I believe will go back-and-forth as our (Round of 64) opener for the 2017 NCAA March Madness tournament. Princeton, comes in as an undersized, yet super versatile team on the offensive end. They play 5-out, where their roster construct is essentially 1-through-5 being ball-handlers & shooters, except when one of Pete Miller, Alec Brennan, or Will Gladson is on the floor. Coach Mitch Henderson likes to utilize senior Spencer Weisz as a point forward, as well as sophomore guard Myles Stephen as a ball-screener, who at 6’4, is springy enough to serve as a lob target. What makes Princeton such a tough cover is the advantage their bigs serve when setting screens, as they can make what we call “secondary” cuts. Say there is a pindown being set on the weak-side, if the primary cutter curls (inside cut), the secondary cutter is obligated (if in his arsenal) to make an outside cut. This is where they can put pressure on you, as not many other teams have bigs that want to, or are capable, of coming out of the paint to defend off-ball actions on the perimeter, or better yet closeout on a shooter that far out. Princeton is led on offense by primary ball-handler Devin Cannady who is shooting over 42% from three-point range on over 6.5 attempts per game. Cannady is a shifty ball-handler who can create at all three-levels, as well as hit pull-up threes (scheme-changing threes) out of the pick-and-roll.
As for defense, due to Princeton being an undersized team, they tend to be switch heavy (1-through-5). They are also aggressive as they load to the ball (strong-side overload) & rotate their butts off on post-doubles & when helping-the-helper in pick-and-roll defense. The goal of the defense is to force the skip pass as players (Coach, too) are confident they can recover & closeout hard to run shooters off the three-point line or force a tough contested shot. Due to being undersized, Princeton is very vulnerable on the offensive glass, despite ranking 15th in defensive rebounding percentage. That is more of a credit to their commitment to rebound as a five-man unit oppose to having their wings leak out on the break. Princeton is also vulnerbale to your occasional post-brutes (ie Caleb Swanigan) who can force them to double the post & scramble on defense.
For Notre Dame, despite being very similar in terms of a versatile yet undersized team, I expect this to still be a match-up they struggle with. Notre Dame is more pick-and-roll oriented than Princeton, but also have the advantage on many defenses with their (6’5) center Bonzie Colson. Colson causes mayhem for opposing defenses as he is an extremely versatile screener in pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop. Colson can stretch out to the three-point line, as well as attack off the bounce. Notre Dame’s offensive construct is similar in how Mike Brey likes to have 1-through-5 as ball-handlers & shooters. Their offense regularly thrives against switch-heavy teams, as Colson can make guards & wings pay for it via the post or on the offensive glass. Notre Dame is a very good three-point shooting team as they rank 32nd in the nation in that department, fifteen spots higher than Princeton (hello, analytics!). The Irish are led on offense by primary ball-handler Matt Farrell, with Steve Vasturia taking some share in ball-handling duties. Mike Brey’s team also ranks 1st in the nation in free-throw percentage & 22nd in assists.
As for defense, Notre Dame is similar to Princeton, again, on this side too. The Irish are undersized and tend to be switch-heavy as well. While he is mobile & brings a lot of energy, Bonzie Colson is not the best option to pick up smaller players on a switch, but the Irish rotate very well to contest shots at the rim. Bonzie is their “rim-protector” who manages to average 1.4 blocks per game, but that is more credited to his awareness, timing, and how he greatly utilizes his length when contesting or trailing as a shot-blocker at the rim. Notre Dame is vulnerable on the defensive glass as well. The Irish rank 261 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage.
In conclusion, I believe this game will be very close. I believe Colson will have his way battling against undersized guards & forwards all game, and may ultimately make Princeton pay on the offensive glass. Though, If Princeton gets it going early from three, I believe the Tigers will prevail victorious. I believe both teams will thrive against one-another’s switching. Ultimately, it may come down to who can generate extra possessions, while that may be by ways of offensive rebounds, or creating turnovers. The match-up to watch here will be Devin Cannady against Matt Farrell. Although, I would like to see Mike Brey slot V.J Beachem on Spencer Weisz.
Prediction: 68-64, Princeton pulls the upset.
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